Poor China's foreign trade data for February is almost a foregone conclusion, the only hope now is that import growth will not decline too fast, otherwise the majority of investors will face a sharp correction.
Button key military
Although have nearly a week, China will import and export data released in February, but for now, the analyst firm's trade data for February generally pessimistic about the extreme estimates are that China will appear in February rare trade deficit.
in charge of China's Ministry of Commerce of Import and Export of China's official attitude also reflects the level of interest in the prospects for foreign trade,Discount UGG boots, according to > government and think tank pessimistic, mainly from China's major trading partners in recent domestic situation worse. U.S. January durable goods orders fell 5.2% qoq, twice the market had expected (-2.5%). Since then,UGG boots cheap, Orders down to the end of 2002 levels. and the EU also issued a deepening financial crisis, like China will undoubtedly drag on export-oriented countries. one of the most immediate result is that weak external demand will make China's export enterprises further deterioration of the situation.
but developments today,UGG boots, sluggish exports are no longer confined to the export sector on.
the new century, foreign exchange has become one of the main channel money supply. and trade deficits, will exacerbate the decline in foreign exchange in China.
from the end of last year, foreign exchange .1 The number has fallen dramatically in January, financial institutions, foreign exchange decreased 138.2 billion yuan, is the first time since the beginning of 2008 decreased. this is due to the deepening financial crisis, many foreign companies began to divest from China, on the other hand it is because the settlement residents and businesses in China will decline. In addition, the August 2008 revision of the .
for this change in the foreign exchange system or reduction of the outside world, China's central bank through open market operations or the deposit reserve ratio cut approach to hedging. But the trade deficit appears, was to make the central bank acts in this regard space greatly discounted. particularly in the amount of days for three consecutive months of credit blowout in China, the central bank is working to moderate tightening of bank liquidity is now the source of liquidity if the Chinese suddenly cut off,UGG boots clearance, China's monetary policy may be a period of turmoil .
the reduction in foreign exchange will make the amount of money the Chinese stock market decline.
Not only that, if the February trade deficit with China does occur, then all investors should hope that the deficit is due to lower exports deceleration speed faster than imports. because this situation indicates that China's domestic demand, it said that China's economic vitality is restored. Otherwise, most investors will hold back the future profitability of the business pessimism, then the first birth of a rebound in market liquidity, will most likely have to end.
Therefore, in this week, is also the policy vacuum of the week, reading the trade data would be very useful for investors.
No comments:
Post a Comment